Sunday, February 13, 2005

Infrastructure – The Backbone of Development for Africa

In order to provide the level of development that will deliver the promise of a bright future to the people of Africa all aspects of the physical infrastructure must be torn apart and rebuilt. This rebuilding includes but is not limited to roads, commercial and commuter rail roads, airports, sea ports, electrical grid, natural gas and telecommunications.

Financing the Plan

The tax revenues from current levels of business are too low to cover the enormous expense of developing an infrastructure essentially from nothing. In order to ensure there is enough money in the treasury to meet the costs of laying down the infrastructure the new Working Group would work with the legislature to provide the treasury the authority to issue bonds.

These bonds would be standard savings bonds sold below the face value and redeemable for the face value in ten years, with the sale price and thus the interest rate determined by the confidence of the financial markets. The bonds would be available to the general public within the Lead African Transition Group of Countries (LATGC) as well as investors from outside the group. International markets as well as other central banks would be encouraged to invest in the bonds.

Other than raising capital for the start of the infrastructure development, this method would provide Africans with a vehicle for investing for their personal future as well as the futures of all those around them.

The legislature would also approve a currency for the LATGC and the bonds would be issued in units of this new currency. The currency’s initial value would be based on the collective average value of the currencies of the LATGC against the leading hard currencies such as the euro, the dollar, the yen and the pound.

Roads

Plans would be developed and approved for multi-lane divided motorways connecting all the large cities within the LATGC. This would include all capitals and major towns. The motorways would be designed with the capacity to efficiently accommodate traffic volume projections twenty years into the future. These projections would factor in the most optimistic income growth figures for the population as well as population growth building in assumptions that a certain portion of the population would own and operate personal automobiles and travel between the major cities. The projections would also factor in the enormous increase in commercial traffic that would be encountered as the LATGC grew from a mere agglomeration to a fully integrated commercial system.

This motorway system would include bypass and ring routes around all the major cities so that large metropolitan areas would not have to suffer the congestion of through traffic.

Commercial and Commuter Rail Roads

In addition to the motorway, all major and secondary cities would be connected with both commercial and commuter rail roads. While these roads would run on the same rail bed, there would be, at a minimum, four commercial tracks and four commuter tracks – two in each direction. The commercial tracks would be primarily for diesel powered locomotives hauling freight while the commuter tracks would be for faster moving electric powered passenger trains. One set of the commuter tracks would be for local traffic while the other would be devoted to high speed express trains. All commuter train traffic would be electrically powered. In metropolitan areas and railroad intersections the commercial and commuter railroads would not have their siding areas co-located. Commercial sidings would be developed well outside of cities with dedicated streets serving them from the industrial areas of the metropolitan areas. The commuter railroads would be integrated with the subway systems of each metropolitan area.

Commuter subway systems would be implemented in all major metropolitan areas on the commuter railroad system. As appropriate, either tunnels would be drilled or major arterial roads would be torn up, subway lines laid beneath them and then covered up with the roads. These subway systems would be extensive and, combined with a surface bus system, put efficient mass transportation within less than a kilometer of all residents of the metropolitan areas.

The subways would run along major thoroughfares while the bus routes would run across the subway system. This arrangement would put busses on lower traffic routes and keep them off congested streets thereby ensuring adherence to timetables. An example of the arrangement would be, say, the major thoroughfare of the north side of a major metropolitan area runs from the south to the north. There would be a number of subway lines constructed in a north-south pattern with possibly an east-west line on the outer perimeter. Between that perimeter line and the identified downtown or heart of the metropolitan area, bus routes would run on east-west routes between stations on the different subway lines.

Airports

All former capitals and other major metropolitan areas would have airports constructed well outside the cities and close to commuter railroads. The location of the airports outside the metropolitan areas would provide room for expansion as traffic demands necessitated the addition of runways. All of these airports would have radar and instrument landing system so that commercial and commuter aviation would have twenty-four hour functionality. In addition modern passenger handling and freight ports would be included in all airports and they would be linked by both road and rail to the metropolitan areas they served.

Sea Ports

All major sea ports would be upgraded with extensive container handling capability and all would be connected to the railroad network so that commercial traffic could flow in and out of the ports without clogging up roads in the metropolitan areas that have grown around the ports. The inter-modal cargo transfer facilities would be located in rail yards well outside the cities. The reason for this would be to keep heavy truck traffic away from the ports and out of the city center.

Physical Transportation Efficiency

The common threads running through the physical transportation infrastructure development are efficiency and capacity. The main purpose of this system is to allow the fast, easy and efficient transportation of goods across the LATGC as well as affordable and efficient mass transit between and within metropolitan areas.

Electric Infrastructure

With all the commuter transportation systems being electric, it stands to reason that the smooth operation of the system depends on a reliable electric grid. The Working group would conduct a full assessment of the energy needs of a fully integrated commuter rail infrastructure, existing industries and support industries for the construction and maintenance of the full transportation infrastructure. Support industries would include cement production and distribution, steel manufacturing for rails and concrete reinforcement in roads, structural steel for bridges and other steel needs, aluminum for trains and airplanes as well copper for wire to generate and distribute electricity; all heavy consumers of electric power.

Africa has abundant oil, natural gas, geothermal and wind energy as well as large arid areas near large metropolitan areas that receive over 300 days of sunshine a year (solar power). All these natural resource would be harnessed to deliver power into the full electrical grid.

Telecommunications Infrastructure

With all major metropolitan areas slated for connection by road, rail and airport the last piece of the puzzle for speedy commercial development is the deployment of reliable telecommunications. All the formerly disparate telecommunications systems would be upgraded and connected into a single wired grid. This grid would run between the major metropolitan areas and the rural areas would also be included in the wired telecommunications grid.

The wired telecommunications grid would be supplemented by ground based wireless networks with system-wide interconnectivity as well as satellite based telecommunications technology.

Utilities

The electric, natural gas and telecommunications infrastructure would be provided by the administrative authority and function in much the same way as public utilities do in many countries today. On the electric and natural gas side, these would be pure public utilities. On the telecommunications side, the administrative authority would have the responsibility of developing and maintaining the infrastructure while private companies would sell the service to consumers.

Investment Opportunity

All these infrastructure items would be provided by the government and financed by the bond issues. The implementation of each item is a heavily labor intensive undertaking and one that would take a number of years to complete. A large majority of the investment would be consumed by salaries of the workers building the roads, railroads, subways, airports electrical grid, cement factories, steel factories and so on. The investment would be in the hundreds of billions of dollars per year.

What this would mean is that a large portion of the population would move beyond a subsistence existence into a level of consumers with a collectively considerable amount of disposable income. This disposable income produce demand for things such as better housing, make use of the mass transportation, create a need for financial services such as banking and insurance. Consumption of consumer goods would see an increase commensurate with the increase in disposable income available for spending once housing and other needs have been met. This would lead to the rise of support industries such as an efficient retail sector, more doctors, better schools as well as leisure services such as hotels and restaurants.

All of these demands would create the need for professional services such as engineering for construction of roads, bridges, commercial and residential buildings. Engineers would also be needed for the roll out of the electrical and telecommunications infrastructures. While a lot of the components needed in the electrical and telecommunications infrastructure would not be available in the LATGC, engineers would be needed to install and then maintain the systems when they were finally in place. The same goes for technology installed in airports, hospitals and other industries such as steel, cement, banking, retail and leisure. The growth of these businesses would also create the need for legal and accounting services. These skilled jobs are well-paying and the vast majority of them would be filled with Africans.

Basically, those hundreds of millions of dollars invested in the LATGC would create needs that would put the economy on a fast forward track to development. A cycle of finance would be created where the initial money for the construction of the infrastructure would come from outside the LATGC but by the second or third year Africans would be investing a portion of that money in those bonds and the LATGC would shift from its reliance on foreign capital to self sufficiency.

The LATGC would be in great financial shape with regards to its relation with current donor nations. In the first year it would save enough money from the consolidation of government operations to pay off all existing foreign debt including both principle and total accumulated interest. Beyond that it would turn from a money pit into an investment opportunity producing competitive returns on investment.

Because there is only a certain amount of infrastructure needed the development of this infrastructure would only last three or four years. With that infrastructure in place the economy would grow at a very fast pace and would absorb the workers as they rolled off the infrastructure projects. The demand for commercial, industrial and residential structures would increase and would probably have labor needs beyond those of infrastructure construction.

The benefit the private firms hiring these workers would have is that of a trained and experienced workforce. In addition, as the infrastructure construction winds down the equipment used to develop it could be sold to private firms for use in their work. This would reduce the barriers of entry into this market and thus increase competition which always leads to competitive pricing. Competitive pricing would ensure that customers are not gouged and that real estate pricing would not balloon into unsustainable bubbles driven by ill-advisable speculation.

Sunday, February 06, 2005

A Case for Dissolving Africa’s Current Power Structures

Africa is made up of a hodgepodge of countries, each internationally recognized as a state yet none capable of standing on its own two feet. Within each of these countries is a machinery of state which in most of them is governed by a powerful executive be they nominally elected or militarily imposed. At a technical level all heads of state are equal therefore when any of the African heads of state travels the globe they are granted the diplomatic protocol befitting a head of state. This includes meetings with the most powerful rulers of politics and business. While their status grants them access to these centers of power they really have no influence on any international decision making especially those decisions concerning their own countries. When they are brought into the decision making process it is more to be informed than to be consulted.

Failure in Service Delivery

While the government of each country is basically functional with departments that to one extent or another structured to deliver services to the citizens they are generally ineffective. That is not to say that they do not cover some of the basics. There are functioning departments of education, finance, agriculture, police, legislatures that pass laws and courts that enact them but by and large each of these is meeting only the minimum requirements well below the needs of the citizens.

With a history of division and factionalism coupled with low revenues African leaders are handicapped in any attempt to provide strong leadership. What has instead happened is a keen sense of political theater has evolved. Heads of state and government surround themselves with the trappings of power and wield power within their states with impunity. They adjust the machinery of state to an such an extent that they become the source and embodiment of power. Access to and acquisition of power becomes the driving force for those in the leadership structure and decisions are made not with the interests of the population in mind but with the aim of advancing in the power machinery.

Misdirected Accountability

There is no accountability in place for actually delivering to the people. The only accountability is to the power structure and that accountability is measured in loyalty to the individual who holds the highest office. The result of this is a lack of development of African intellectualism beyond theory. There are a great many ideas for the building of the continent to the heights it is capable of achieving but those ideas are stuck in the hallways of academic institutions far from the continent where free discussion of those ideas can take place without fear of retribution.

This lack of honest intellectual contribution to debate has left public debate in the hands of so called leaders simply jockeying for power and pretty much amounts to hurling petty accusations and personal attacks back and forth. This form of debate, because of its hollow nature, does nothing to serve the people. The leaders are insecure in their positions and as a result squash any public debate of anything that even appears to question their authority. Being the centers of power they have become accustomed to slavish sycophancy and are unfamiliar with true and honest debate on the merits of arguments.

The Illusion of Power

The reason for their insecurity is that they know while they peddle the illusion of power to those around them, power validated by control of the machinery of state and demonstrated by accoutrements such as limousines, bodyguards, airplanes and lavish residences with which they accessorize their personas, in reality they have no power at all. Living in this reality they operate under the very real fear that the cloak they have so carefully woven over the eyes of their subjects and followers will be pulled back and the people will be able to see the truth. The only people for whom this is a frightening prospect are the leaders themselves.

If all these leadership structures were combined into a single one there would be great savings from a resource utilization standpoint and the single leader would have true power and their current insecurities would be replaced by a confidence that would show itself in the public discussion of issues.

In addition to being more confident, the new leader would also be accountable. The individual would have authority as well as resources to carry out the responsibilities of office. Although this person would have the power, that power would be kept in balance by an independent legislature and an independent judiciary.

Potential Savings from Consolidation

Looking at if from the perspective of efficient use of resources Africa is really wasting a lot of time and effort as well as foregoing many opportunities. Just at the government operations level the waste can be illustrated in a simple table.

Resource

20 Countries

One State

Difference

Heads of State

20

1

19

Ministers

400

10

390

Ministerial Vehicles

1,600

40

1,560

Assistant Ministers

800

20

780

Assistant Ministerial Vehicles

1,600

40

1,560

Ministerial Permanent Secretaries

400

10

390

Ministerial Under Secretaries

1,600

40

1,560

Embassies and Foreign Missions

3,000

150

2,850

Ambassadors

3,000

150

2,850

Embassy Personnel

150,000

7,500

142,500

Legislative Buildings

20

1

19

Heads of Military

20

1

19

Military Service Heads

60

3

57

Total

162,520

7,966

154,554

If the twenty identified countries combined their government operations into a single entity there would be significant savings from just the few items identified above. A full streamlining of all the governments in all the countries would result in the elimination of several hundred thousand personnel and that money currently tied up in administrative matters could be directed towards actually delivering services to the people rather than supporting an administrative structure that devours financial resources at a rate higher than its ability to deliver service. Only the vehicles for ministers and assistant ministers were shown on the table but in addition to them, all the other departments shown also have vehicles. Each of the embassies operates several vehicles as do the legislatures and military command structures. In addition, people at this level of government have personal staff attending to them ranging from drivers to body guards to secretaries, personal assistants, cooks, butlers, gardeners, pilots and so on. With a reduction in the total number of these high level people, the expense of the entire support structure under them would also be eliminated.

Each of these countries spends hundreds of millions of dollars a year maintaining embassies, militaries and the machinery of state. These are hard earned dollars that could be otherwise directed to other needs. By eliminating the unneeded embassies alone, over three billion dollars a year would be freed up. This money alone, if used to pay down the current debt load of all the twenty countries combined even at prevailing interest rates would eliminate that debt within a few years with no help whatsoever from external countries.

These countries in total spend over five billion dollars a year on new purchases, equipment and parts to support the twenty militaries and their assorted service branches of air force, army and navy. The consolidation of twenty militaries into one would reduce that expense by about 90% leaving over four billion dollars for use in development work.

If the money from these examples and all the other savings obtained by eliminating existing power structures were combined and used for debt servicing in the first full budget year, that portion of Africa would become debt free at an international level.

With a conservative operating figure of about fifteen billion dollars freed up and now available this portion of Africa would now be in the position to direct that money to development needs. This is an enormous amount of money and several multiples of the foreign aid currently received by all the twenty countries combined. The commendable efforts of Tony Blair to direct more money to the elimination of world hunger and disease amounts to committing around two hundred million pounds a year to the elimination of third world debt and improving education and delivery of health services. This is a great idea and a wonderful effort but the amount proposed is only a faint shadow of that available from the continent itself.